This Election is Not Over

Stop right where you are and read every bit of this information! Everyone! I do not care if you are white, black, asian, gay, straight, republican, democrat, independent, male, female, or any other demographic. You need to read this paragraph for paragraph, sentence for sentence, and word for word. This election is not over, it is nowhere near over and I am going to tell you exactly why.

In this up and coming Presidential Election, we have a tight race. No matter what narrative the media spews, telling us that Obama has already won, it does not change facts. Let me break it down for you. It is generally agreed that of the 50 states in this great nation, 38 states will vote solid Republican or solid Democrat no questions asked. That leaves, however, another 12 states to be accounted for on Election Day. Those are what we call Swing States. Each state has a designated number of Electoral Votes depending on that states population and it takes 270 of those Electoral Votes to win the Presidency. At this point in time, we have the incumbent and Democratic Nominee, President Barack Obama, at 205 Electoral Votes while Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, has 174. Those Swing States, however, make up 159 Electoral Votes, which both candidates are certain to draw from on Election Day, but who will reach the 270 mark.

Each and every one of these states is in play and they could literally swing either way. Millions of dollars in advertising by both candidates is going into these states and the candidates themselves are visiting them at astonishing rates. With this level of attention, the polls still show the polls tight. With the exception of Missouri, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the RCP Averages for all of these states shows the candidates within 6 percentage points of each other. So why has the media decided to state the Romney campaign is “flailing” or that Obama has won the race already? Simple. The media are the Presidents cheerleaders. They want him to win so badly!! They are doing whatever they can to make the Romney campaign look bad because in reality, the Obama campaign is the team who is truly “flailing.” A dismal record, spending out of control, encompassed by a developing international crisis all lead to a dismal outlook for the President come November.

Now you may agree, yes the media is rooting for the President and yes the President is having some trouble in all of those areas but the numbers are numbers and Romney just is not gaining the support that he needs to win. Well, my friend, I would beg to differ and I will point you to facts.

  1. In 2008, Obama won the Independent vote 8% and the overall national popular vote by 7%. In 2012, Romney is at the least tied with the President and some polls (even the biased ones) show as much as an 11-point lead for Romney in the Independent votes.
  2. Obama overwhelmingly won both the Catholic and Jewish vote in 2008. Since then, the Presidents policies have been heavily anti-Catholic and anti-Israel leading me to believe that while the President may still win these demographics, it will not be by much.
  3. Never, not once, in the modern election era has a President ever won re-election with less votes than he has the 4 years before. In 2008, President Obama received 66, 882, 230 votes while Senator McCain garnered 58, 343, 671 votes. I can tell you, without a doubt, not one person who voted McCain in 2008 will vote Obama in 2012 but I can’t being to tell you how many Obama supporters in 2008, not support Mitt Romney in 2012.

That being said, you cannot dismiss the fact that in more than half of the polls published, Democrats are largely over-sampled while Republicans and Independents are largely under-sampled. With those types of “systematic polls” of course we are going to see Obama with a 5% lead nationally.

Now, even with the skewed polls we still have a close race. For an incumbent to have a competitor so closely in the polls is a historical feat and an embarrassing one for the President. If we take the RCP daily averages from the Swing States and use the “Dick Morris Theory” which is based on the fact that historically, 80% of the undecided votes end up going for the opposing candidate of party while 20% goes for the incumbent. You see, the “undecided voter” has already decided they do not like the incumbent party/candidate but they are not sold on the opposing team yet. So here is what the electoral map would look like on November 6th with the current polls (yes including the skewed ones) if Dick Morris is correct and 80% of the undecided’s vote Romney.

As you can see, we would have a tight race. Particularly with Ohio and Florida we see them so close under this analysis that I cannot say which was they would go. Clearly, if Obama were to win in Florida, he would surpass 270 and take a second term as President. Romney, on the other hand, would have to win both of them to become the 45th President of the United States. In this scenario, there is a possibility of a tie at 269 Electoral votes each. If Romney wins Florida and Obama win Ohio, then neither has crossed the 270 Electoral Vote threshold and the decision would go to the House as to who would the next President. However, this scenario is highly unlikely. You see, as I said before, a majority of the polls that we see are skewed heavily to the left. Without the skew, this is what we would see in each of the Swing States on Election Day.

Now more than ever, and without a doubt, I can say to you that this race is far from over and anyone who tells you different is either lying, uninformed, or just plain stupid. It’s not in the bag for Romney or Obama, but it is certainly not the storm that the Obama loving media would have you to believe. It’s not over until it is over and that comes on November 6th. Don’t bet your Freedom on what the media says, get out, work hard, and lets take this country back this November one vote, one state at a time.

Tags: , , Electoral College, , , Swing State, Tie, Vote

Author:Cody Baker

Cody is currently pursuing his bachelors degree in Mass Communications and Journalism at Southeast Missouri State University. He plans to pursue a degree in International Relations upon graduation from SEMO and has plans to also obtain a law degree. He is a passionate Republican and an even more passionate Mitt Romney supporter. Cody recently attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa Florida as a delegate from the 3rd Congressional District in the State of Missouri.

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