The “Forgotten” Poll

As is the case in most Presidential elections, polling data is abundant and frequently contradictory not to mention confusing as well. One polling group uses certain assumptions based on previous elections about the makeup of the electorate while the next uses another set of assumptions, thus producing often wildly different results. While the pollsters look to the 2008 and 2004 elections for their assumptions (the last two presidential elections), they have largely overlooked or ignored the most recent and possibly most relevant “poll:” the election of 2010.

 

Now, to be fair, they have not considered it, for the most part, because it was not a Presidential election. However, they ignore this election at their peril. 2010 was billed by most pundits as a referendum on the Obama administration and this referendum was one of the biggest electoral routs in American politics, ever. Given this result, there is every reason to believe that this is a factor that should be taken into account in this election.

 

The Democrats went from large majorities in the House and the Senate to losing control of the House and ending up with a much smaller majority in the Senate. Why? Because the Democrats and the President were perceived as ruling this country against the will of the people. People were deeply unhappy with the way the President was forcing his will on the people (Obamacare being the prime example) and they responded by loudly attending townhall meetings and making known their displeasure only to be called horrendous names by the Democrats and the media. Finally, when it became clear that the majority party and their leader, the President, held the people in utter contempt, the people responded by kicking his party out of office in droves. And even then, when liberal MA elected Scott Brown, who ran on being the final vote to kill Obamacare, the President and the Democrats thumbed their noses at the electorate and passed it anyway by less than honest means.

 

What makes pollsters think that the electorate does not remember this? Despite the media insisting that the Tea Party has collapsed and gone away, they, and the issues that created the political tsunami that was the 2010 election, have not gone away. The administration has shown no signs of any willingness to listen to anyone other than their own partisan groups. The economy has not significantly improved since then. People are still out of work and hurting. Meanwhile, the President’s “laser-like focus” on jobs has been proven to be nothing more than an empty promise. So, why would voters now re-elect the man whose policies they so clearly rejected just two years ago?

 

Now, the polls are trending towards Romney despite this oversight and significant oversampling of Democrats. And yet, the majority of these polls show a tight race. While it is possible that these polls are correct, there also exists the very real possibility that the powerful undercurrents that brought us the electoral, tectonic shift of 2010 will produce another “unexpected” rout. I believe this to be the case. And in the end, as we all know, the only poll that really and truly matters is the one on November 6 and what happens then will likely have a lot to do with what happened in that “forgotten” poll of two years ago.

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One Response to “The “Forgotten” Poll”

  1. Crystalf
    October 23, 2012 at 9:18 am #

    It might be interesting to consider how other midterm elections could help foresee the next Presidential election. 2006 was bad for Republicans and in 2008 America was ready for a change in leadership. Seems like something similar is happening.

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