Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Mitt Romney 42% [28%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 31% [5%] (11%)
• Rick Santorum 14% [2%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 6% [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [17%]

GENERAL ELECTION

• Mitt Romney 48% [51%] (48%)
• Barack Obama 44% [43%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 50%
• Newt Gingrich 41%

• Barack Obama 50%
• Rick Santorum 39%

President Obama Job Approval

• Approve 46% [41%] (43%)
• Disapprove 49% [56%] (56%)

Survey of 800 likely voters, including a subsample of 500 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted January 24-26, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 4.5 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April -7, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

There’s one mention of Newt Gingrich in The Reagan Dairies. It’s in Chapter 3, which covers 1983. Page 123 in the book:

“Newt Gingrich has a proposal for freezing the budget at the 1983 level. It’s a tempting idea except that it would cripple our defense programs. And if we make an exception on that every special interest group will be asking for the same.”

Newt Gingrich’s decision to attack Mitt Romney as being in the mold of Charlie Crist (while comparing himself to Marco Rubio) during his campaign stops in Florida today has raised the ire of a key figure in Florida politics: none other than Marco Rubio himself. Rubio had a little to say about Gingrich’s attacks:

Newt Gingrich’s decision today to bash Mitt Romney for hiring former Charlie Crist loyalists and employees doesn’t seem to be sitting well with Sen. Marco Rubio, who drove Crist out of the Republican Party before beating him at the polls in 2010.

Said Rubio: “Mitt Romney is no Charlie Crist. Romney is a conservative, and he was one of the first national Republican leaders to endorse me. He came to Florida, campaigned hard for me, and made a real difference in my race.”

Emphasis mine. Not a good idea to wake the sleeping Rubio dragon and make him come out against you, Team Gingrich. Given the fact that Rubio has committed to remaining neutral in the GOP primary race, this may be as close to an endorsement as our candidates might hope for.

H/T Race42012′s Matt Coulter

ARG Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 42% (19%) {28%} [15%] (26%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% (50%) {11%} [3%] (11%)
• Rick Santorum 9% (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 8% (2%) {4%} [4%] (1%)
• Rick Perry 3% (2%) {5%} [16%]
• Undecided 8% (10%) {12%} [12%] (11%)

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 34%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Rick Santorum 10%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Rick Perry 0%
• Undecided 10%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 56%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Rick Perry 6%
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (548 Republicans and 52 independents) was conducted January 13-15, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 27 – May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 42% {39%} [44%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {44%} [40%] (43%) {46%} [42%] {45%} [42%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 42% {45%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [40%] (38%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {41%} [43%] (39%) {38%} [43%] {40%} [44%] (44%)

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 3-4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 27-28, 2011 are in Results from the poll conductedDecember 20-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 21-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 1-2, 2011are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedSeptember 28-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the polls conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the polls conducted between July 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney holds a slight 45% to 41% lead over Obama among men. Among women, the president edges Romney 43% to 40%. Obama draws his strongest support from voters under the age of 40, while Romney leads among older voters.

Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama is ahead of Romney 39% to 33%. But 28% of these voters either favor some other candidate or are undecided.

Eighty percent (80%) of Tea Party members support Romney, but the president holds a 51% to 33% lead among voters who say they are not part of that movement. Obama captures 57% support from union members but is edged by Romney 44% to 40% among those who are not unionized.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

This poll does not reflect today’s exact polling averages because it started in December, whereas the poll released by Rasmussen was conducted just yesterday on January 4th.  This pretty much nullifies the notion that Romney cannot make it above 25%.  Also, the Gallup poll had Newt Gingrich in 2nd place, while the more up to date poll by Rasmussen has Newt in 3rd place.  Perhaps the reason he is so bitter lately?

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Mitt Romney 27% {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Ron Paul 13% {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 11% {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Rick Perry 6% {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 28, 2011 – January 4, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 27, 2011 – January 3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 – January 2, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

DAVENPORT, IA — Ann Romney recalled moments that any mother of multiple children could appreciate: the name-salad directed by mothers toward their children after an instance of misbehavior.

“At the last stop I introduced my son who is here as Matt. His name is Craig. But it reminded me of what it was like when I was an exasperated mother and I would say ‘TaggMattCraig… you know who I mean! You!” Mrs. Romney said, earning knowing laughs from the crowd who had gathered for her husband’s campaign rally.

It was the kind of accessible, humanizing anecdote that has made Ann Romney — the mother of five sons whom she sometimes describes as “naughty” boys — such an asset to Mitt Romney on the trail.

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As a candidate, Mitt Romney has famously struggled sometimes to connect with the voters who crowd his events. He tends to focus almost exclusively on policy and politics on the stump, eschewing issues like family or fatherhood. Ann’s anecdotal tales of being an “exasperated wife,” have become ice-breakers with packed crowds at near every stop, and voters and political observers alike have praised her increasingly comfortable appearances on the trail.

But she’s also emerged into a more explicitly political role as of late, opining this morning on the state of the race in Iowa.

“This is a serious thing we’re all coming to, and I sense something happening as we’ve been going across Iowa,” She said. “I sense a feeling, a coalescing, a momentum or whatever it is you want to call it around Mitt, and I think people are starting to figure out that this is the guy who is going to beat Barack Obama.”

Mrs. Romney has also been more prominently featured in the campaign’s advertising, praising her husband’s character in one television ad, and doing the same in a new web ad, launched just this morning.

“I believe in him. I believe he has the experience. I’ve seen him in every situation. I’ve seen him as a husband, as a father, as a governor, and as a successful businessman,” Mrs. Romney says in the ad. “Everything he does, he does well and he does it with his heart and his commitment.”

Previously a rarer figure on the campaign trail, Mitt Romney’s wife of 42-years (not 25, as he once infamously flubbed at a debate) has become a near constant presence in the final weeks before primary voting begins in earnest. She joined her husband on his bus tour of New Hampshire last week, and is crisscrossing Iowa by his side this week. When Romney returned to New Hampshire this past Friday and Saturday morning, Ann continued on in Iowa, campaigning with Chris Christie on her husband’s behalf.

The former first lady of Massachusetts is usually introduced by her husband, who often tells of their first meeting at a high school party, when she, then Ann Davies, was just 15.

“I was immediately struck by that beauty,” Romney reminisced this morning in Davenport, telling the story of how he drove Ann home that night and never looked back. “We’ve been going steady ever since.”

And while Mrs. Romney can quickly draw knowing sympathy from a roomful of women by telling stories of trying to manage her five rambunctious sons with a husband regularly traveling for work, and of her difficult battle with multiple sclerosis, she also elicits laughs with her tales of revenge as a grandmother.

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“The best part of having children, I will tell you, is the grandchildren. And the best part of being a grandmother is watching their children misbehave,” Mrs. Romney said this morning, smiling. “These boys deserve it.”

The former Massachusetts governor continues to dote, though, on his wife’s twin role in his bid for the presidency.

Following an appearance this morning by Mrs. Romney on “Fox and Friends,” where she was peppered with questions about her husband’s record at Bain Capital, and his travails as a candidate. Afterwards, the former Massachusetts governor praised her performance at a rally here.

“She was marvelous. They asked her tough questions and she did exactly what you’re supposed to do: she didn’t answer them,” Romney laughed, before launching into his stump speech, on jobs and the economy.

An influential Tea Party has endorsed Mitt Romney For President in 2012! Independence Hall Tea Party PAC has become the first Tea Party to endorse Mitt Romney; predicts Mitt Romney will become 45th President of The United States, and we expect there will be more to come. Here are the details:

Philadelphia, PA (January 2, 2012) — The Independence Hall Tea Party PAC, a tri-state (DE, NJ, PA) regional group, announced today that its 27-member Board of Delegates has voted overwhelmingly to endorse Mitt Romney for President.

The Independence Hall Tea Party PAC is the first Tea Party group in the nation to formally endorse Mitt Romney.

“Over the past several weeks, a consensus has been building among our Board of Delegates that Mr. Romney is the most electable Republican candidate,” said PAC President, Don Adams. “We, as a Tea Party PAC, have set winning the White House as our number one priority in 2012. We believe Mr. Romney is the one candidate who can win the Republican nomination and defeat President Barack Obama in November.

“Mr. Romney is the only Republican candidate who has consistently polled even or ahead of President Obama in national surveys. He puts a number of 2008 blue states in play, including Michigan and New Hampshire. He also appeals to large numbers of independent voters.”

“Mr. Romney, a devoted family man, is an incredibly talented, well-rounded individual with in-depth knowledge and experience in both the private and public sectors of the economy,” said PAC New Jersey Vice President, Bill Green. “Ultimately, we believe Mr. Romney is a man of principle who, once elected, will lead our nation back to prosperity.”

PAC Delaware Vice President, Kevin Street, said, “His vision of a strong America, one built on the foundations of free enterprise and meritocracy, is most compatible with the principles of the Tea Party movement.

“Mr. Romney has stated time and again that he believes in a limited role for the Federal government–emphasizing that the 10th Amendment of the United States Constitution delineates between the powers of the national government and that of the states.”

“Mr. Romney will pursue a policy of energy independence, lower taxes, and less government spending. He has promised to secure our borders and redirect our foreign policy,” added PAC Pennsylvania Vice President, Sean Carpenter. “Under his presidency, the United States will no longer prostrate itself before other nations. We believe in a strong America–an America that is respected for its economic vibrancy, its military strength, and its constitutional values.”

PAC Co-Founder, Teri Adams, said, “We realize that a number of fellow Tea Partiers are not yet where we are in supporting Mitt Romney for President–and we respect their varied positions.

“However, we felt compelled to make an endorsement in light of a counter-productive effort to stop Mitt Romney among some disparate elements on the right–often based on a religious intolerance of Mr. Romney’s Mormon faith.

“We also think the notion that the Tea Party will support a 3rd party candidate after Mitt Romney becomes the Republican nominee, a notion most often advanced by the mainstream media, must be discredited,” Ms. Adams said.

“It discounts the good sense of millions of Tea Party folks nationwide who have come to realize, or will eventually realize, that the only way to defeat

President Obama, whose policies are an anathema to conservatism and

the Tea Party Movement, is to rally around his strongest opponent–Mitt Romney–the man who, we believe, will become the next president of the United States.”

Please visit http://www.independencehallteapartypac.com/ and share your comments.

This is the strongest indication indication to date that Mike Huckabee will not run for President in 2012.  ANY Presidential candidate would not let go of their South Carolina team unless they are not running.  I’ve said for a long time that Mike is not running.  He has a cruise scheduled in June and is building a 3 million dollar home in Florida, and, has a very nice paying job with Fox News that will pay the bills on that new mortgage.

We’ve been told that former Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee, a rumored candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, is giving his former S.C. supporters the nod to seek work on other presidential campaigns. The word is that he’s told South Carolina staffers that they have his blessing for them to peddle their wares elsewhere. If this is as true as it appears, it’s the second major shakeup. Monday, Miss. Gov. Haley Barbour surprised everyone but himself when he announced that he would not seek the GOP nod.

It also means that two Southerners that were considered major contenders are gone from consideration. Huckabee had a strong effort in South Carolina during the last run, and would have been a favorite to win the primary if he had fully committed to a run. Barbour has good credentials from his period as governor, and enough political and monetary connections to win as well, but he decided the time wasn’t right for him.

So, how does that affect the playing field here? Obviously, U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich is the presumptive No. 1, in that he has a record and the money and the organization to outlast most other candidates. And in therms of how we see the race right now, Donald Trump rises to second. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum are also moving up the chart.

Now, we’re beginning to get to an uncomfortable examination of the Republican field. Coming off tea party excitement and the 2010 wins, there is a paltry amount of what any nonpartisan person would call serious candidates. Part of the reason is the nature of the campaign at this point. There hasn’t been a lot put into building the physical manifestation of the campaigns — renting office space, hiring staff and buying media. Most of what’s happening now is earned media, and the support of a candidate requires nothing more than liking what you just heard on television.

When the going gets tough, we’ll see whether Trump, Bachmann and Santorum can step up with serious efforts. Whether they can get people waking up early on Saturday mornings to go to rallies, knock on doors and man phone banks. Whether they can raise the money to compete. Because if the bloom comes off the rose around December, the people committed to winning and not saying pithy things on cable television are going to be in a good position.

Original Article found here.

Today, Mitt Romney formed the Romney for President Exploratory Committee with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as a first step in a campaign for the 2012 Republican nomination for President of the United States. While this step does not constitute a formal announcement of candidacy, it allows Governor Romney to be in compliance with the requirements of federal election law as he begins to raise the funds necessary to explore a potential candidacy.

Gov. Romney announced his plans in an online video at www.mittromney.com which was made public via Facebook and Twitter. The video was taped at the University of New Hampshire following a meeting this morning between Gov. Romney and students who said they are worried about getting a job after graduation. The transcript for the video is as follows:

Hello, I’m Mitt Romney. This morning I spoke with a number of students here at the University of New Hampshire. Like young people all over the country, they wonder whether they’ll find good jobs when they graduate.

Last week, in Nevada, I walked through a neighborhood with homes vacant or in foreclosure. Unemployment there is over 13%. Across the nation, over 20 million Americans still can’t find a job, or have given up looking.

How has this happened in the nation that leads the world in innovation and productivity? The answer is that President Obama’s policies have failed. He and virtually all the people around him have never worked in the real economy. They just don’t know how jobs are created in the private sector.

That’s where I spent my entire career. In 1985, I helped found a company. At first, we had ten employees; today there are hundreds.

My work led me to become deeply involved in helping other businesses, from innovative startups to large companies going through tough times. Sometimes I was successful and helped create jobs, other times I was not. I learned how America competes with companies in other countries, why jobs leave, and how jobs are created here at home.

Later, when I served as governor of Massachusetts, I used the skills I had learned in 25 years in business to streamline state government, balance the budget every year, and restore a 2 billion dollar rainy day fund.

From my vantage point in business and in government, I have become convinced that America has been put on a dangerous course by Washington politicians, and it has become even worse during the last two years. But I am also convinced that with able leadership, America’s best days are still ahead.

That is why today I am announcing my Exploratory Committee for the Presidency of the United States.

It is time that we put America back on a course of greatness, with a growing economy, good jobs and fiscal discipline in Washington.

I believe in America. I believe in the freedom and opportunity, and the principles of our constitution, that have led us to become the greatest nation in the history of the earth – and I believe that these principles will confirm American’s future as well.

This effort is not about a person, it is about the cause of American freedom and greatness. I’d like to ask you to join with us – volunteer, donate, or just pass this along to a friend. Thanks so much.

Original Source: http://MittRomney.com