Today, the headlines will read something like “Santorum back in the Game” or “Mitt still seeking Conservative Vote”. Maybe, it will
even say “Santorum’s race to 1,144”… however, that story would be full of lies. The fact is all of these headlines would be false, as nothing changed after Santorum’s “big” win in Louisiana and here is why. Of the 46 delegates that Louisiana has to send to the National Convention, only 20 could be allocated tonight due to their rules. To be eligible to receive any delegates you had to reach a threshold of 25% of the vote, which only Senator Santorum and Governor Romney were able to do.
The breakdown will probably only end up with 15 delegates allocated from last night with Romney getting 5 and Santorum getting 10. In short, Santorum will have a net gain of 5 delegates which is nothing with the margin he is already behind which is a number greater than 300 depending on who is counting. But there is one more thing that we will see soon enough. The former Senator will probably not see another win for at least a month and that is if he is able to win his home state of Pennsylvania and even that is not a guarantee.
As the race presses on through April, Romney will win Washington D.C. and Maryland. Current polls show him up by 13 in Wisconsin. It would be another 3 weeks until anyone votes again and even then, Romney would be poised for wins in Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, and Delaware. There is even a good chance for him to pull off a win in Pennsylvania as well, which would be the deathblow to the Santorum campaign. By this time the allocation for Missouri’s delegates should also be known and as for right now, the vote seems to be a three-way tie between Romney, Santorum, and Paul there.
To give a little clearer picture, I will illustrate the best possible scenario for Senator Santorum for the rest of this race and show that no matter what, Governor Romney will have 1,144 delegates.
Current delegates allocated according to CNN:
Mitt Romney – 553
Rick Santorum – 259
Newt Gingrich – 135
Ron Paul – 71
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