Romney will win easily

Josh Barton NYS

 

According to all the latest polling data, Romney’s coalition has just begun. If the election were held today, Romney would win.

 

The national polling data is not reliable, neither are internal state polls. They count all voters, not the ones likely to vote. And who is likely to vote?

 

Senior citizens (who approve of Romney at a pitiful 38%) (70-90% likely)

 

 

 

 

 

Income earners over $100,000 (60-80% likely)

 

The wealthy in this nation, those who make more than $100,000 per year per family, vote disproportionately in elections. Since 1992, they went directly to the Democrats in increasing numbers. Mitt Romney appeals to them, while Obama’s new class warfare rhetoric and tax policies are not the best pick.

Mitt has the message, the personality, and a kindred attitude as many of these higher income earners. Utah, New York, Connecticut, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and New Hampshire have more higher income earners than the rest of the country.  Of those nine states, 6 are contested.

Romney has beat Obama in every poll released with this group, and is the first Republican to do so since 1992.

If Mccain did as well as Romney is doing with this group in 2008, he would have beat Obama overwhelmingly.

Colorado, Pennslyvania, North Carolina, Delaware, Virginia, and Florida would have become GOP states.

Mccain did not appeal to this group, Neither did Bush, Dole or GHWB. Romney does.

 

 

Who won’t vote?

College students and the young

Income earners of less than $30,000

 

Hope and change is played out for the young. Many college students have become disillusioned with Obama, and many who voted Obama in 2008 have become disillusioned or hostile to the President. Only 51% of people 18-30 actually support the President anymore, and most will not even vote this time.

51%

This group propelled Obama to victory in 2008 voting Democrat 66-32%

No wonder Obama hangs out on campuses and clowns around on late night television.

 

When the factors are considered, this is a likely map:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even better, the electorate does not yet know Romney. They know Obama. This isn’t even going to be close.

 

Author:Josh

4 Responses to “Romney will win easily”

  1. NiteOwlMom
    April 26, 2012 at 11:17 pm #

    Great post, but change “Romney” to “Obama” in the point you made about seniors preferring Romney.

  2. dewey
    April 26, 2012 at 11:46 pm #

    Romney will be the Walter Mondale of the gop.

    Our beloved President Obama has already won his second term.

    By 2016, your pathetic party will be history.

  3. April 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm #

    I loved the post. Dick Morris is also predicting that Romney will win by a comfortable margin. The fact that Romney polls so well against Obama after coming out of such a bitter Republican Primary is very telling…..Romney 2012!

  4. Jed Merrill
    April 28, 2012 at 10:09 am #

    Romney is the candidate that makes Obama want to “throw his remote at the TV” to quote a DNC fundraising letter. They also say he is the most conservative candidate since Goldwater. I happen to think he is the ONLY candidate running this year who could possibly have beaten the President’s billion dollar campaign, and will do so in style.

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