A new Florida poll is about be released which was conducted today. We’ll wait till the poll, performed by Public Policy Polling, is out tomorrow but here are some details reported by the source:
Mitt Romney is up by 15-20 points after one night of polling in Nevada, with Newt Gingrich poised to finish second, Public Policy Polling reports.
The caucus universe is difficult to poll but Public Policy Polling has done well in Nevada, including the difficult 2010 Senate race almost every pollster blew.
The first night impressions via pollster Tom Jensen:
“Romney leads Newt by about 15-20 points. The main suspense may be whether he gets over 50%, he will certainly have a chance. Paul is 3rd and Santorum 4th, both around 15%. The chances of Paul besting Gingrich for 3rd are pretty minuscule.
“Gingrich is barely above water on his favorability numbers. Santorum is actually the most universally well liked candidate but it’s not translating into intent to vote for him.
“Mormon vote looks to be about 20% of the electorate. And well over half of voters see Romney as the strongest against Obama in the fall.”
And now — call in the cliche — it’s all about turnout.
(Updated with poll results out today)
Las Vegas Review-Journal/Cannon Survey Center Nevada Caucus Survey
- Romney – 45%
- Gingrich – 25%
- Santorum – 11%
- Paul – 9%
- Undecided – 9%
Survey of 426 likely caucus attendees was conducted Jan 27-31 and has a +/-4.75% margin of error.
A couple of notes: the poll was conducted entirely before Romney won Florida, which further increases his chances for a true majority in the Silver State. Also keep in mind the difficulty of polling caucus states such as Nevada (and Minnesota and Colorado, for that matter). In 2008, Nevada polls had Romney between 20-30% support heading into the caucus; Romney won with 51.1% of the vote — results that were duplicated in Minnesota and in Colorado. Organization
