Romney is Winning, and the Liberal Media Knows It

I think that it would be fair to say, this election is close. National polls by both Gallup and Rasmussen show the race virtually tied. The thing to remember is that the President is not elected on a national ballot but state-by-state in the Electoral College. But the Electoral College can be a tricky thing. Recall the election of 2000 when then Governor George W. Bush was facing Vice President Al Gore. The election was close, so close whoever won Florida won the Presidency. The election ended with Bush winning Florida and the Presidency, but he had failed to win the popular vote nation wide. That being said, it is important to remember that a national poll should not be a gauge as to who is winning. Instead, we should look at the swing states.

From CNN

What defines a swing state? Oxford Dictionaries defines it as such: “a US state where the two major political parties have similar levels of support among voters, viewed as important in determining the overall result of a presidential election.” This election, political analysts have placed 12 states in that category. Those states are as follows: Missouri, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado. The number of Electoral Votes held by these states is 156.

From 270towin.com

In 2012, the general consensus is that the President has a base of around 201 Electoral Votes while Republican challenger Mitt Romney starts with a base of around 181. The number of Electoral Votes needed to win is 270.

I think it is safe to say that in each of these states classified as “swing states,” there is next to no chance President Obama will not win by a larger margin in 2012 than he did in 2008. To me, that places Missouri (McCain won by 1%) and North Carolina (Obama won by 1%) in the Romney column bringing him to a total of 206 Electoral votes thus far. That leaves us with 131 Electoral Votes left to be distributed.

From 270towin.com

Other states that could easily turn red are Virginia (Obama won by 6%), Ohio (Obama won by 5%), and Florida (Obama won by 3%). With the swing of these 3 states, we now have Romney at 266 Electoral Votes, a mere 4 away from the 270 mark needed to win the Presidency.

From 270towin.com

Before I get to far ahead of myself, I must be fair and state that the likelihood of Romney pulling off wins in states like Pennsylvania (Obama won by 11%) and Michigan (Obama won by 16%) and Nevada (Obama won by 12%) are slim so we will place them in the Obama column (although the approval ratings in both Nevada and Pennsylvania are very low for Obama and we could see a surprise in either one or both). This brings Obama to 243 Electoral Votes.

From 270towin.com

This now leaves New Hampshire (Obama won by 9%), Iowa (Obama won by 9%), Wisconsin (Obama won by 13%), and Colorado (Obama won by 9%). If Romney wins any of these states, he would clench enough Electors to become President Elect. Obama would have to win all 4 of these remaining states to win the Presidency for a second term. Wisconsin is where Republican Vice Presidential Nominee Paul Ryan is from, giving the Republicans an advantage. It is also worth noting that in all 4 of these states, President Obama’s approval is below 50%.

After reading this many of you may be saying that this analysis is skewed or that it is asinine to say some of these states could be “easily” moved into the Romney column. Let me explain to you why I feel my analysis is not so far off.

In 2008, the electorate had a strong energy for the Democratic Party. Many Americans were upset at President Bush and his policies. On top of that, the parties Presidential Nominee was one like we had never seen before. Barack Obama, an African-American Junior Senator from Illinois, was young, energetic, and a he could speak like no one we had ever heard before. In the General Election, Democrats showed up by a +7% margin over Republicans (32% and 39% respectively) at the polls. That is a difference of a dead even party turnout of 37% in the 2004 election. It is worth noting as well that 3% (872,440) fewer White Americans voted in 2008 than in 2004 while 3% (4,618,322) more Minority voters showed up at the polls in 2008 than in 2004 (a net change of 6% between the two) according to CNN Exit Polls. Obama won 73% of the Minority vote in 2008.

Since then, President Obama’s “approval” has taken to a downward spiral. He took office with a 68% approval rating that hit rock bottom in October of 2011 at 42%. It now hovers somewhere between 47-49%. No President has ever been re-elected with that low of approval. Furthermore, the unprecedented rise in Minority voters in 2008 has largely been credited to the fact that the Minority was excited to have a Minority on a major party ticket, and understandably so. That number is likely to fall this election, as many African-Americans are unhappy with the Presidents endorsement of gay-marriage as are many Latinos as well as both demographics being displeased with his attacks on religion. This does not, however, mean that these votes will switch to Romney. My prediction is that 3% jump in voters will be decimated to a large degree in this election.

Another voting sector to watch is that of the religious factions. In 2008, 54% of voters called themselves Protestant, a demographic McCain won by 9%. Catholics, who make up 27% of the 2008 voting electorate, went in the direction of Obama by 9%. Much has changed since then in both and the Presidents approval among those voters is as a dismal low. President Obama’s liberal policies have alienated many Protestants and Catholics alike. With the birth control mandate, to his endorsement of gay marriage, many are ready to see Obama gone. I would not be surprised if we see a surge in the Protestant vote compared 2004 and 2008 (both at 54%) in an effort to oust President Obama.

The last point I make is this. President Obama’s approval is hovering right below 50%. Historically, the Incumbent has never received a higher percent than his approval rating in elections, usually 1-2% less. The economy is still in shambles, voters are tired of the same excuses and the same lines. They voted for change and they got it in the wrong direction. The economy is worse off, the debt is on track to be doubled by the end of a second Obama term, and government is bigger than ever. No matter what the biased media tells you, this election is not over. On November 6th, this country will do the right thing, we will elect Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and we will do it in style.

 

270towin.com

Swing State Margins in 2008

2004 Electorate

121, 480, 019 Voters in 2004

93,539,610 White Voters in 2004

27,940, 409 Minority Voters in 2004

65,599,210 Protestant Voters in 2004

32,799,610 Catholic Voters in 2004

 

2008 Electorate

125, 225, 901 Voters in 2008

92,667,170 White Voters in 2008 (Down 3/100)

32,558,731 Minority Voters in 2008 (Up 3/100)

67,621,990 Protestant Voters in 2008 (Even)

33,810,990 Catholic Voters in 2008 (Even)

Tags: Battleground States, , Electoral College, Majority Vote, , , , Swing States

Author:Cody Baker

Cody is currently pursuing his bachelors degree in Mass Communications and Journalism at Southeast Missouri State University. He plans to pursue a degree in International Relations upon graduation from SEMO and has plans to also obtain a law degree. He is a passionate Republican and an even more passionate Mitt Romney supporter. Cody recently attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa Florida as a delegate from the 3rd Congressional District in the State of Missouri.

One Response to “Romney is Winning, and the Liberal Media Knows It”

  1. Abe
    September 26, 2012 at 3:07 am #

    Here’s my plan for victory:

    enough hardcore republicans have to move from “we loose anyway-states” to
    the “best bet swing state”

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