Romney Gains, Again

Nearly a week ago at the first Presidential Debate in Denver, Colorado, Governor Romney made a clear and specific case to the American people. President Obama, on the other hand, was far below par. With a clear and concise victory, more so than any other Presidential Debate in modern history (and anyone that disagrees please see CNN or Gallup flash polls), no one was really sure what kind of a bump, if any, the Governor would receive from his performance. Many pollsters agreed that no polling advantage really comes from the debates. What they gain is momentum. Well let me be clear, Governor Romney’s obliteration of his competition on that stage last Wednesday night has turned the momentum in his direction and you had better bet your britches it turned the polls in his direction too.

Last week, before the debate, I began to use the Dick Morris theory to explain the possibilities for probable Electoral College breakdowns. We take the Real Clear Politics daily averages for the 12 Swing States. These averages are taken from all recent polls to give a clearer and hopefully more accurate analysis of where each state stands.

From last week, we saw 2 states change colors in their daily averages. Both Florida and Colorado went from blue to red. None changed hands in the other direction. It is also worth noting that in each of the states that the President still leads in, Governor Romney has edged closer to him since the debate.

Last weeks number crunch gave President Obama the edge before the debate.

Now when we use the Dick Morris theory, we have to understand that historically, a majority of the “undecided” voters trend to the non-incumbent candidate. On an average, that number is about 80%.  That being said, if you take the remaining percentage of voters in each of these states daily average and award 80% to Romney and the remainder to President Obama, you see we have a very interesting race that gives Governor Romney the edge.

This week, in a far different narrative than we saw with last weeks numbers, Governor Romney has the edge and if the election were held today at these numbers, Governor Romney would become President Elect Romney.

Clearly, the trends are showing that Romney is gaining and Obama is flailing. If Romney can keep this unheard of level of momentum going, he may very well skate to victory on November 6th. That, however, is no guarantee and we must continue to fight the good fight and work to elect Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as President and Vice President of these United States.

With this weeks numbers, Governor Romney would take the Election.

Tags: debate, , , , Swing State

Author:Cody Baker

Cody is currently pursuing his bachelors degree in Mass Communications and Journalism at Southeast Missouri State University. He plans to pursue a degree in International Relations upon graduation from SEMO and has plans to also obtain a law degree. He is a passionate Republican and an even more passionate Mitt Romney supporter. Cody recently attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa Florida as a delegate from the 3rd Congressional District in the State of Missouri.

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