RCP Averages Give Romney Electoral Advantage

Left, we see the RCP Daily Averages
Right, we see those averages with “undecideds” added

In a daily tracking of the Real Clear Politics Daily Average in each of the 12 swing states (on the left) we see President Obama holds a small lead in most of the states when undecided voters are not factored in.

When we use the Dick Morris Theory, which states that on average, 80% of “undecided” voters swing to the non-incumbent, we see a different story (on the right).

  • Less then 2% margin (Yellow) = Lean
  • 2-5% (Blue and Red) = Probable Safe

If the election were held today, New Hampshire would “lean” Obama while Michigan and Wisconsin would be “safe” for the Incumbent.

For Romney, Iowa and Pennsylvania would “lean” Romney while Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and North Carolina would all be “safe” for Governor Romney.

Electoral Votes:

  • President Obama – 231
  • Governor Romney – 307

When the “lean” states are eliminated, we see Romney still wins with 281 Electoral Votes, signifying that the edge for this election may have just moved from President Obama’s advantage to Governor Romney’s advantage.

The National Popular Vote is beginning to lean rather heavily in the Governor’s advantage over the last week

Check back TOMORROW for the latest updates in the Electoral Map.

Author:Cody Baker

Cody is currently pursuing his bachelors degree in Mass Communications and Journalism at Southeast Missouri State University. He plans to pursue a degree in International Relations upon graduation from SEMO and has plans to also obtain a law degree. He is a passionate Republican and an even more passionate Mitt Romney supporter. Cody recently attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa Florida as a delegate from the 3rd Congressional District in the State of Missouri.

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