Could it be? Does the media finally get it? It is beginning to look as though that is the case. Mitt Romney’s win last night in Illinois was a significant one. It finally marks the beginning of the end. Illinois was Rick Santorum’s last chance to make his case as a contender and he was strongly rejected with a double-digit defeat. We already know that Speaker Gingrich has gone down the path of no return, Congressman Paul has always been on that path, and it seems now that Senator Santorum has started his journey. Of course there is always the “what if” but the numbers don’t lie. Here are the numbers that include Illinois as they stand according to RCP:
Mitt Romney: 560
Rick Santorum: 246
Newt Gingrich: 141
Ron Paul: 66
Now I am sure we can count on Senator Santorum doing well in Louisiana this coming Saturday but after that, the month of April looks like a month of gloom and doom. Next, lets run though a possible scenario that has results as in favor for Santorum as they possibly could be:
Missouri (the final caucus):
**Santorum does not have any delegates on the Pennsylvania ballot although it is a non-binding vote and delegates could change loyalty
This means a GOOD April for Santorum still doesn’t let him gain on Romney. Knowing that, here are the new totals after April.
Mitt Romney: 785
Rick Santorum: 425
Newt Gingrich: 151
Ron Paul: 78
At this point, Mitt Romney would only need to get 42% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,144 needed to clench the nomination. This should be no problem as at this point he had already garnered 54%. Rick Santorum at the other hand, would need to get 87% where as he has only taken 30% at this point. We won’t even discuss the impossible path for Gingrich and Paul of 100%+++ needed delegates. If you calculate the remaining “inevitable” states for Romney (Utah, New Jersey, New Mexico) and Mitt Romney just coasts through the rest of the season to reach 1,144. And yes, this is a best-case scenario for Rick Santorum. This means no matter how long he stays in the race, Romney gets to 1,144.
So this begs the question, why is anyone but Governor Romney still in this race? Isn’t it time to stop the infighting and move on to the real goal: Defeating Barack Obama. All this continued primary does is hurt our chances in November, particularly, by depleting the funds of the eventual nominee. Wake up everybody and smell the coffee because the Presidents re-election campaign took in $21 million last month, which is more than all the GOP candidates combined. This needs to end and it needs to end NOW! Embrace reality and get behind Mitt!