New Polls in North Carolina Show Romney with a 10 Point Lead

North Carolina

Party Affiliation in 2004 Election                                    Party Affiliation in 2008 Election

  • Democrats – 39%                                                     Democrats – 42%
  • Republicans – 40%                                                  Republicans – 31%
  • Independents – 21%                                                 Independents – 27%

Accurate Party Affiliation Polling 2012

  • Democrats – 40%
  • Republicans – 36%
  • Independents – 24% 

Monday October 1, 2012

ARG

  • Democrats – 43% +3
  • Republicans – 33% -3
  • Independents – 24% +0

On the surface of this poll, we see Romney leading in North Carolina by 4%, but the context of the poll shows a different story. One that shows an even better result for Romney. Having over-sampled Democrats and under-sampled Republicans, my analysis leads me to believe that the race is nearly decided with Romney leading Obama at 53% to 43%, a much different story than 4 years ago when Obama won with a razor thin margin.

PPP

  • Democrats – 48% +8
  • Republicans – 34% -2
  • Independents –19% -5

This poll, while skewed, can be analyzed and back up the ARG poll. After breaking down the data, we see a Romney lead of 53% to 42% over Obama, again a much different story than in 2008.

Thursday September 27, 2012

NBC/WSJ/Marist

  • Democrats – 39% -1
  • Republicans – 31% -5
  • Independents – 31% +7

This poll may be slightly skewed to be left leaning, but not by a significant margin as in past NBC/WSJ/Marist Polls. My analysis brings me to say North Carolina could be called a tie at 47% for each candidate in the Presidential Race.

In the Governors race, we see a similar story where McCrory holds a lead over Dalton of 53% to 38% in my analysis.

Tags: North Carolina, , ,

Author:Cody Baker

Cody is currently pursuing his bachelors degree in Mass Communications and Journalism at Southeast Missouri State University. He plans to pursue a degree in International Relations upon graduation from SEMO and has plans to also obtain a law degree. He is a passionate Republican and an even more passionate Mitt Romney supporter. Cody recently attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa Florida as a delegate from the 3rd Congressional District in the State of Missouri.

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