NBC Poll Backs Up CNN Showing a Tight Race for the White House

National

Party Affiliation in 2004 Election                                    Party Affiliation in 2008 Election

  • Democrats – 37%                                                     Democrats – 39%
  • Republicans – 37%                                                  Republicans – 32%
  • Independents – 26%                                                Independents – 29%

Accurate Party Affiliation Polling 2012

  • Democrats – 38%
  • Republicans – 35%
  • Independents – 27%

Tuesday October 2, 2012

NBC News/Wall St Journal

  • Democrat – 32% – 6
  • Republican – 26% – 9
  • Independent – 42% +15

In this poll, both Republicans and Democrats were under-polled, however, Republicans were under-polled at a higher rate than Democrats (3%) more. The Independent vote was split fairly evenly in this poll. When the skewed results are analyzed, I draw that the race does not give President Obama a lead but as a matter of fact it shows an alternate narrative of Romney leading Obama at a 49% to 46% margin.

Monday October 1, 2012

CNN/Opinion Research 

  • Democrats – 37% -1
  • Republicans – 29% -6
  • Independents – 34% +7

The latest national poll from CNN/Opinion Research shows, on the surface, a statistically tied race between Democrat Incumbent Barack Obama and Republican Nominee Mitt Romney at 50% to 47%. Unfortunately for the Obama campaign, it is worse than that. In my analysis of the data released in this poll today, I would say that the race is giving edge to Romney at 49% to 48%, a slightly different narrative than portrayed in the CNN headlines. Mitt Romney currently leads the Independent vote by 8% in this latest poll.

ABC/Washington Post

  • Democrat – 33% -5
  • Republicans – 30% -5
  • Independent – 33% +6

This poll can be shown to have an accurate analysis for the upcoming Presidential election, showing a tight race within the Margin of Error at 49% to 47% with Obama leading Romney.

Thursday September 27, 2012

FOX News

  • Democrats – 41% +3
  • Republicans – 38% +3
  • Independents – 21% -6

In this FOX News Poll, both Democrats and Republicans see an increase in their polling numbers of 3% over what a likely 2012 turnout will show. In turn, Independents are under polled here, an area where Romney leads regularly. This leads me to analyze that this poll is slightly skewed to the left and gives Obama a 47% to 44% lead in the Presidential Race Nationally.

 

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Author:Cody Baker

Cody is currently pursuing his bachelors degree in Mass Communications and Journalism at Southeast Missouri State University. He plans to pursue a degree in International Relations upon graduation from SEMO and has plans to also obtain a law degree. He is a passionate Republican and an even more passionate Mitt Romney supporter. Cody recently attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa Florida as a delegate from the 3rd Congressional District in the State of Missouri.

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